Janata Party, the first secular alternative to the Congress, crumbled within two years due to the ambitions of Morarji Desai, Charan Singh (a satrap) and Jagjivan Ram.
In the 1989 Janata Dal experiment, Devi Lal’s ambitions helped Chandrashekhar engineer a coup. The satraps played a role in demolishing the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) hopes in 1996 and installing Deve Gowda and I.K. Gujral in 1996-98, but the governments did not last. J. Jayalalithaa derailed the first National Democratic Alliance (NDA). M. Karunanidhi supported the NDA in 1999 and was with the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) in 2004. The NDA and UPA regimes walked the tightrope with satraps!
Indeed, despite the hopes of a bi-nodal party system since 1998, a secular alternative, reduced from being the second option in 1977 to the Third Front within a decade, has not ceased to linger in the background. It remains a parking space for satraps in search of greater role in national politics than their regional space would afford them.
This initiative in 2009 comes from the Left Front and Prakash Karat-led CPM. Just when a requiem to the front was being written, it has emerged as an identifiable entity with N. Chandrababu Naidu, Mayawati, J. Jayalalithaa, Mr Gowda, Naveen Patnaik, Chandrashekhar Rao, and Om Prakash Chautala projected to win 100-plus seats. Sharad Pawar is openly hobnobbing with them. The Lalu-Mulayam-Paswan front is keeping its options open.
This satrap conglomerate has three clear prime ministerial hopefuls: Ms Mayawati, projected to win 40 seats (nearly one-third of projections for the Third Front), has unambiguously announced her aspiration; Mr. Pawar is sure to jump on to the Third Front bandwagon to fulfil his ambition. He has endorsement from Mr Patnaik and Ms Jayalalithaa, who too has declared her suitability for the post and has reportedly sent feelers to join even the UPA.
The RJD-SP-LJP combine has opened a front against the Congress while being soft on the Left. These potential allies too have three prospective prime ministers in their ranks. Their desire might be tempered, but if the verdict is so fragmented that the Third Front conjures up the numbers to form the next government, the satraps within it would keep rocking the boat to grab power benefits.
The Left, which has announced its desire to be in the government, will naturally like to be in the driver’s seat. However, despite being able to put together the Third Front, Mr Karat lacks the flexibility of his predecessor, the inimitable Harkishan Singh Surjeet.
This conglomerate of satraps is obviously unlikely to coherently jell into a governing coalition. Whosoever temporarily renounces prime ministerial ambition is likely to push at the first opportunity. Of course, policy coherence is the last thing that is likely to be expected. Indeed policy would be a bone of contention, for local compulsions would override national needs.
Ajay K. Mehra is director, Centre for Public Affairs, and author of Emergence of Regional Parties in India.
This article was published in The Asian Age.